Outcomes
The corporate outcomes we predict.
HawkData estimates the probability of future corporate events from each company's current audit trail. Most predicted outcomes are themselves event types — the same data is both feature history and prediction target.
Live today
8 outcomes from existing extractors.
Each outcome maps to an event type we already extract. Labels come from historical filings; features come from prior audit-trail events.
| Outcome | Source events | Horizon | Example p |
|---|---|---|---|
Acquired (target) Company is acquired — labeled from acquisition events filed by the seller. | acquisition | 24 mo | 12% |
Bankruptcy filing Chapter 7 or 11 petition during the prediction window. | bankruptcy | 12 mo | 4% |
CEO / CFO turnover Departure or replacement of the CEO or CFO. | leadership_change | 12 mo | 31% |
Activist campaign Filing of an SC 13D by an activist holder. | ownership_disclosure | 12 mo | 7% |
Dividend initiation or cut Material change to the company's dividend posture. | dividend_change | 12 mo | 22% |
Buyback authorization Board authorizes or expands a share repurchase program. | buyback_authorization | 12 mo | 18% |
Auditor change (with disagreements) Auditor change accompanied by reported disagreements — a distress proxy. | auditor_change | 6 mo | 3% |
Financial restatement Non-reliance disclosure on previously issued statements. | restatement | 12 mo | 5% |
Example probabilities are illustrative; per-company values are estimated from each company's specific audit trail.
On the roadmap
8 outcomes that need new extractors.
These outcomes require us to ingest additional SEC forms or filing items. Two of the highest-signal additions for distress prediction — loan covenant breaches and material weakness disclosures — are well-established leading indicators of bankruptcy in academic credit literature.
Going-private transaction
DEFM14A + 8-K item 1.02Take-private LBO or management buyout.
Strong alpha signal for LBO-focused funds and arb desks.
Spin-off
Form 10 / Form 10-12BEquity carve-out of a subsidiary or business unit.
Reliable precedent for unlocking discount-to-sum-of-parts trades.
Stock split
8-K item 8.01 (subset)Forward or reverse split of the common shares.
Material capital-structure signal for index and retail-flow models.
Delisting
8-K item 3.01 / Form 25Exchange compliance failure or voluntary delisting.
Hard tail-risk event for credit and equity portfolios.
Material weakness disclosure
10-K / 10-QInternal-controls failure disclosed in the ICFR section.
Established leading indicator of restatements and distress.
SEC enforcement action
8-K item 8.01 / AAER releasesPublic regulatory action against the company.
Crystallizes regulatory risk for governance and ESG scores.
CEO succession announcement
8-K item 5.02 (subtype)Subtype of leadership change identifying planned vs. forced turnover.
Refines turnover prediction with intent and timing signal.
Loan covenant breach
8-K item 2.04Acceleration of indebtedness from a covenant violation.
Among the strongest near-term predictors of bankruptcy in credit literature.